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- Written by: Jane J. Lee
Coastal flooding will increase significantly over the next 30 years because of sea level rise, according to a new report by an interagency sea level rise task force that includes NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, and other federal agencies.
Titled Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States, the Feb. 15 report concludes that sea level along U.S. coastlines will rise between 10 to 12 inches (25 to 30 centimeters) on average above today’s levels by 2050.
The report – an update to a 2017 report – forecasts sea level to the year 2150 and, for the first time, offers near-term projections for the next 30 years.
Agencies at the federal, state, and local levels use these reports to inform their plans on anticipating and coping with the effects of sea level rise.
“This report supports previous studies and confirms what we have long known: Sea levels are continuing to rise at an alarming rate, endangering communities around the world. Science is indisputable and urgent action is required to mitigate a climate crisis that is well underway,” said NASA Administrator Bill Nelson. “NASA is steadfast in our commitment to protecting our home planet by expanding our monitoring capabilities and continuing to ensure our climate data is not only accessible but understandable.”
The task force developed their near-term sea level rise projections by drawing on an improved understanding of how the processes that contribute to rising seas – such as melting glaciers and ice sheets as well as complex interactions between ocean, land, and ice – will affect ocean height.
“That understanding has really advanced since the 2017 report, which gave us more certainty over how much sea level rise we’ll get in the coming decades,” said Ben Hamlington, a research scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California and one of the update’s lead authors.
NASA’s Sea Level Change Team, led by Hamlington, has also developed an online mapping tool to visualize the report’s state-of-the-art sea level rise projections on a localized level across the U.S.
“The hope is that the online tool will help make the information as widely accessible as possible,” Hamlington said.
The Interagency Sea Level Rise Task Force projects an uptick in the frequency and intensity of high-tide coastal flooding, otherwise known as nuisance flooding, because of higher sea level. It also notes that if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, global temperatures will become even greater, leading to a greater likelihood that sea level rise by the end of the century will exceed the projections in the 2022 update.
“It takes a village to make climate predictions. When you combine NASA’s scenarios of global sea level rise with NOAA’s estimates of extreme water levels and the U.S. Geological Survey’s impact studies, you get a robust national estimate of the projected future that awaits American coastal communities and our economic infrastructure in 20, 30, or 100 years from now,” said Nadya Vinogradova Shiffer, who directs the NASA Sea Level Change Team at NASA Headquarters in Washington.
“This is a global wake-up call and gives Americans the information needed to act now to best position ourselves for the future,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “As we build a Climate Ready Nation, these updated data can inform coastal communities and others about current and future vulnerabilities in the face of climate change and help them make smart decisions to keep people and property safe over the long run.”
Building on a research legacy
The Global and Regional Sea Level Rise report incorporates sea level projections from the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment, released by the United Nations in August 2021.
The IPCC reports, issued every five to seven years, provide global evaluations of Earth’s climate and use analyses based on computer simulations, among other data.
A separate forthcoming report known as the Fifth National Climate Assessment, produced by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, is the latest in a series summarizing the impacts of climate change on the U.S., and it will in turn use the results from the Global and Regional Sea Level Rise report in its analysis. The Climate Assessment is slated to publish in 2023.
NASA sea level researchers have years of experience studying how Earth’s changing climate will affect the ocean. Their work includes research forecasting how much coastal flooding U.S. communities will experience in 10 years, helping to visualize IPCC data on global sea level rise using an online visualization tool, and launching satellites that contribute data to a decades-long record of global sea surface height.
Learn more about sea level and climate change here.
Jane J. Lee works for NASA.
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- Written by: Elizabeth Larson
City Manager Alan Flora asked the council to consider amending the consulting agreement between the city and Margetich/Sutter Equities in order to extend it through the end of April. The contract cost is $10,000 per month.
Flora’s written report said the agreement created a partnership that’s intended to lead to a master development agreement of the entire Pearce Field property, which includes about 40 acres along Highway 53.
This new partnership has been focusing on determining retail interests and coordinating project planning efforts, Flora explained in his report.
The city has long had a goal of developing a large shopping center at the site. At one point a decade ago the city was ready to move forward on a plan with a developer when it was stopped by a lawsuit filed by the Sierra Club.
In the last few years, Flora said the city has been putting a lot of effort into developing the property.
He said the city has been working with Amar Cheema with Sutter Equities for awhile, and it was Cheema who then brought in other partners, including Greg Margetich of Margetich Development.
“They’ve been talking to us about possibly stepping in as master developer of this overall project,” said Flora.
They decided to move forward initially through a 60-day consulting contract to help integrate the development group into what the city has been working on and allow them to begin attracting additional possible tenants to the site, Flora said.
That work has been going on since January. Flora said he believes it’s going well and the partners are interested in continuing to move forward with the city.
He said the new agreement would be for another 60 days. He said the goal is to come back before the end of April with a purchase or option agreement in which it would be turned over to the company to complete the property’s development in partnership with the city.
Margetich and Cheema were on hand to answer questions.
Margetich told the council that other development partners include longtime Lake County business owner Bill Brunetti, and broker Steve Edwards, who specializes in retail.
Margetich said they are excited about the project and appreciate the opportunity.
“We feel like we’ve got a really good opportunity to see this to fruition,” he said, adding that he applauded the city for having the fortitude to move the project forward and commit investment dollars to it.
Councilman Russ Cremer asked Margetich about how he felt about the basic design work.
Margetich said they have spoken with the consulting firm the city hired to do the design.
“These things, they evolve and they change but you have to start somewhere,” he said.
He added, “It’s really a user-driven, tenant-driven project.”
Cremer asked if they would reveal who those users are. Flora said it wasn’t the appropriate forum to discuss it.
Margetich said he would ask, too. Cremer said he asks every week.
Councilwoman Joyce Overton asked to clarify if the company was looking for a purchase agreement.
“At this point, that’s the goal for both sides,” said Flora.
Cremer moved to amend the agreement, with Councilman Russ Perdock seconding and the council voting 5-0.
Also on Thursday, the council presented proclamations in honor of Black History Month and Teen Dating Violence Awareness Month; met Edgar, one of the city shelter’s adoptable dogs; approved the sale of a city-owned parcel at 3578 Redwood St.; and voted to oppose Voter Initiative No. 21-0042A1, the Taxpayer Protection and Government Accountability Act, which is expected to be harmful to local governments.
Email Elizabeth Larson at
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- Written by: Mendocino-Lake Community College District
The district had previously taken advantage of a similar refinancing opportunity in 2015, saving taxpayers over $36.5 million.
The combined savings from both bond refinancings now totals approximately $49.2 million, which will be realized by district taxpayers in the form of lower property tax bills.
Under the leadership of the Mendocino-Lake Community College District Board of Trustees, the district administration chose to take advantage of lower interest rates to refinance bonds from its Measure W authorization without extending the term of those bonds.
The district was able to reduce the interest rates on the prior bonds from an average of 5.13% to 4.23%, reducing the community’s tax bill by a total of $12,680,680 over the life of the bond refinancing.
Prior to the bond sale, the district received a credit rating upgrade from Moody’s Investors Service.
In its credit report, Moody’s noted that the rating increase from “A1” to “Aa3” is reflective of “continued solid growth in District tax base,” “steadily improving and strong reserves,” and “prudent fiscal management.”
This high rating allowed the Mendocino-Lake Community College District to attract a broad base of investors which included banks, insurance companies and investment/asset managers.
While the district will not receive any part of the savings, the board of trustees and district administration pursued this opportunity strictly on behalf of local taxpayers as part of their continued support for district students.
“We are thankful to the residents of the Mendocino-Lake Community College District for approving Measure W in 2006," said Superintendent/President Tim Karas.
Karas said bond funds were expended in December 2014 to build the North County Center (Willits), Lake Center (Lakeport), Library/Learning Resource Center (Ukiah) and provide other much needed facility improvements.
“As prudent stewards of public finances, we took action to lower local taxpayer bills,” Karas said.
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- Written by: California Governor's Office of Emergency Services
The 24 properties returned to county officials represent 29.6% of the 81 properties in the county that are enrolled in either the full debris removal program or the hazardous trees only element of the program.
Of the 81 properties, 78 are participating in the full debris removal program. The remaining three properties are participating in the program's hazardous trees only element.
Under the program, administered by the California Governor's Office of Emergency Services, or Cal OES, and the California Department of Resources Recycling and Recovery, or CalRecycle, in collaboration with county officials, participating property owners incur no direct costs.
To date, state debris officials have returned 246, or 11.9%, of 2,067 properties statewide participating in the full or hazardous trees only element of the program to their respective county to begin the permitting process.
To date, state-managed crews have completed the removal of burned metal, concrete, ash, and contaminated soil generated by the 2021 wildfires from 1,243, or 72.1% of the 1,724 properties enrolled in the full debris removal program.
Earlier this month, crews finished clearing eligible wildfire debris from all 78 properties in the county participating in the full debris removal program.
Crews also finished removing eligible debris from all 19 properties in Mendocino County whose owners opted into the full debris removal program after the Hopkins fire.
Wildfire survivors had the option to either use their own contractor or enroll in the state-managed program.
Of the properties with damage from the 2021 fires, 1,724 signed up to have the remains of their homes and other structures cleared by the state.
Another 343 property owners chose to participate in the hazardous trees only element of the program.