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- Written by: U.S. Census Bureau
By 2100, the total U.S. resident population is only projected to increase 9.7% from 2022, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau population projections.
The projections provide possible scenarios of population change for the nation through the end of the century.
The 2023 National Population Projections is an update to the last series of projections, published in 2017, to account for the impact of COVID-19 and to reflect the results of the 2020 Census through its inclusion of the Vintage 2022 National Population Estimates as a base.
It also extends the population projections to 2100, the first time since 2000 that the Census Bureau projections have stretched this far into the future.
“In an ever-changing world, understanding population dynamics is crucial for shaping policies and planning resources,” stated Sandra Johnson, a demographer at the Census Bureau.
“The U.S. has experienced notable shifts in the components of population change over the last five years,” she explained. “Some of these, like the increases in mortality caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, are expected to be short-term while others, including the declines in fertility that have persisted for decades, are likely to continue into the future. Incorporating additional years of data on births, deaths and international migration into our projections process resulted in a slower pace of population growth through 2060 than was previously projected.”
Projections illustrate possible courses of population change based on assumptions about future births, deaths and net international migration.
The 2023 projections include a main series (also known as the middle series) considered the most likely outcome of four assumptions, and three alternative immigration scenarios that show how the population might change under high, low and zero immigration assumptions.
Other highlights:
Total population
By 2100, the total population in the middle series is projected to reach 366 million compared to the projection for the high-immigration scenario, which puts the population at 435 million. The population for the middle series increases to a peak at 370 million in 2080 and then begins to decline, dropping to 366 million in 2100. The high-immigration scenario increases every year and is projected to reach 435 million by 2100.
The low-immigration scenario is projected to peak at around 346 million in 2043 and decline thereafter, dropping to 319 million in 2100.
Though largely illustrative, the zero-immigration scenario projects that population declines would start in 2024 in the complete absence of foreign-born immigration. The population in this scenario is projected to be 226 million in 2100, roughly 107 million lower than the 2022 estimate.
Drivers of population change
In each of the projection scenarios except for the zero-immigration scenario, immigration is projected to become the largest contributor to population growth.
In the middle series and the high-immigration scenario, net international migration is higher than natural increase (the difference between births and deaths) in all years of the time series. For the low-immigration scenario, this crossover happens in 2029.
Reduced fertility and an aging population result in natural decrease — an excess of deaths relative to births — in all projection scenarios. This happens in 2038 in the main series, 2033 in the zero-immigration scenario, 2036 in the low-immigration scenario, and in 2042 in the high-immigration scenario.
Age and sex
Continued declines in fertility are projected to shift the age structure of the population so that there will be more adults age 65 or older compared to children under age 18.
In the middle series, the share of the population in the older age group surpasses that of the younger age group in 2029 and, by 2100, 29.1% of the population is projected to be age 65 or older compared to 16.4% under age 18. This crossover happens in 2030 in the high-immigration scenario, 2029 in the low-immigration scenario, and 2028 in the zero-immigration scenario.
The share of the population age 65 or older in 2100 ranges from 27.4% in the high-immigration scenario to 35.6% in the zero-immigration scenario.
Similarly, the median age of the U.S. population, which represents the age at which half the population is older and half is younger, is projected to increase over time in all projection scenarios.
In 2022, the median age for the total population was 38.9. In 2100, this is projected to increase to 47.9 in the middle series, 46.5 in the high-immigration scenario, 49.2 in the low-immigration scenario, and 53.6 in the zero-immigration scenario.
Median age is currently higher for females, who tend to have longer life expectancies at birth compared to males, and this trend is projected to continue. In the middle series it is projected that in 2100, the median age for females will be 49.1 and the median age for males will be 46.8.
Projected median age in 2100 for females ranges from 47.7 in the high-immigration scenario to 54.8 in the zero-immigration scenario.
For males, the projected values in 2100 range from 45.4 in the high-immigration scenario to 52.5 in the zero-immigration scenario.
Race and Hispanic origin
Non-Hispanic White alone was the most prevalent race or ethnic group in the United States in 2022 (58.9%), followed by Hispanic (19.1%) and non-Hispanic Black alone (12.6%). Although the share of the population in each of these groups is projected to change over time, these three groups are projected to remain the most prevalent through 2060 in all immigration scenarios.
In 2060, the non-Hispanic White alone population is projected to decline to 44.9% in the middle series, 42.7% in the high-immigration scenario, 46.6% in the low-immigration scenario, and to 50.7% in the zero-immigration scenario.
At the same time, the Hispanic population is projected to increase to 26.9% in the middle series in 2060, 27.8% in the high-immigration scenario, 26.2% in the low-immigration scenario, and to 24.6% in the zero-immigration scenario.
The non-Hispanic Black alone population is expected to remain at around 13% in 2060 in all of the immigration scenarios.
Nativity
The projected share of the population that is foreign-born is highly influenced by assumptions regarding international migration.
In 2022, 13.9% of the U.S. population was foreign-born. In the main series, this share is projected to increase to 19.5% in 2100, while the high-immigration scenario projects an increase to 24.4% and the low-immigration scenario projects an increase to 14.9%.
The zero-immigration scenario projects a decline in the share of the population that is foreign-born to 0.3% in 2100.
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- Written by: Elizabeth Larson
The cats at the shelter that are shown on this page have been cleared for adoption.
Call Lake County Animal Care and Control at 707-263-0278 or visit the shelter online for information on visiting or adopting.
The shelter is located at 4949 Helbush in Lakeport.
Email Elizabeth Larson at
C#96
A#12b(YellowCollar)
A#70c(RedCollar)
A#12c(PinkCollar)
A#70b (GreenCollar)
A#58a(PinkCollar)
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A#58c(GreenCollar)
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- Written by: Elizabeth Larson
LAKEPORT, Calif. — Lake County’s annual Veterans Day celebration on Saturday honored not just those who have served in the military but also those who have helped them once they came home.
The event took place once again this year at Konocti Vista Casino in Lakeport.
The Lakeport Fire Protection District brought its ladder truck, using it to display a large American flag just outside of the venue, where members of the Military Funeral Honors Team also were staged. The group posted the colors, provided a gun volley and the playing of “Taps.”
The Clear Lake High School Jazz Band, under the direction of Jenni Ingram, performed a host of songs honoring the military and My Divas sang the national anthem.
Members of 4-H distributed thank you cards to the veterans as they have in past years. In the audience, some of the vets noted how they’ve held onto the cards over the years.
Lake County has an estimated 7,000 veterans, with one of the highest per-capita veterans populations among California’s 58 counties.
It was noted during the ceremony that one in five Americans who will die this year have served in the military.
The event’s guest speaker was Lt. Luke Bingham of the Lake County Sheriff’s Office.
Bingham, an Air Force veteran who served in the security services, also is planning to run for sheriff in 2024.
He deployed to the Middle East twice, in 1996 and 1997, and recounted how many of his family members also have been in the armed forces.
Bingham noted that only 6% of the United States population has been in military service, and borrowed a portion of a quote from Winston Churchill: “So much owed by so many to so few.”
He told the group, “I am proud to be a veteran and proud to stand among all of you who have served.”
Honoring those who support veterans; veteran of the year
Each year, a celebration highlight is the presentation of two awards: Friend of the Veteran and Veteran of the Year.
This year’s Friend of the Veteran Award recipient is attorney Angela Carter, whose work in Lake County includes having previously managed the indigent defense contract.
“This is a tremendous honor,” said Carter, adding, “It’s very meaningful to me.”
One of her passions has been working as part of the Veterans Court team, a group that includes representatives of the Veterans Service Office, District Attorney’s Office and the Lake County Superior Court.
Carter explained that Veterans Court is different from the normal court atmosphere.
Veterans who come into the program may be there due to issues relating to PTSD or addition, she said.
Carter said Veterans Court is a committee and a team effort that manages and helps veterans through an 18-month program that is an alternative to incarceration.
They help veterans meet a variety of needs. Carter said they’ve helped with service dogs, prosthetics, housing and meeting medical needs.
“It’s been a tremendous success,” she said.
She said Veterans Court begins with the pledge of allegiance and applause at the end.
Carter said she was accepting the award on behalf of the Veterans Court team.
She told Lake County News after the ceremony that recidivism for Veterans Court participants across the nation is about 50%, while in Lake County it is very low.
Along with Carter’s award, a second Friend of the Veteran Award was presented to Lake County’s volunteer drivers.
The Veteran of the Year Award went to Military Funeral Honors Team Kenneth Scott, who also is a board member of the Joy Madeiros Veterans Museum in Lakeport.
Scott emphasized the group’s service to veterans.
He said it was one of the greatest awards he had received.
The Military Funeral Honors Team helped close the event with a gun volley and the playing of “Taps” before veterans and attendees were treated to a free lunch.
Email Elizabeth Larson at
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- Written by: Lake County News reports
KELSEYVILLE, Calif. — A crowd of more than 160 supporters and friends gathered at Boatique Winery on Saturday, Oct. 28, to mark an important milestone for the Lake County Land Trust, which is celebrating its 30th anniversary throughout 2023 and 2024.
The Lake County Land Trust was incorporated in late 1993 and received tax exemption status in 1994.
The Land Trust was founded to protect land in Lake County that is important for wildlife habitat, including wetlands, streams, forests and properties with other unique values.
The Land Trust, or LCLT, owns two wetland preserves in the Big Valley area, totaling over 230 acres, owns and co-manages the Rodman Preserve of 232 acres near Upper Lake, owns the nine-acre Rabbit Hill Preserve in Middletown, a 40-acre chaparral preserve on the slopes of Mt. Konocti, and Monitor Island.
The trust is working with local tribes to develop management plans for properties in the Big Valley area and also stewards the Boggs Lake Preserve owned by The Nature Conservancy.
The dinner was a great success with catering provided by Rosey Cooks Gourmet Catering.
The Boatique Winery venue is always a favorite and event manager Francesca Zito helped all evening. Cobb resident Scott Serena provided music.
Guest speaker Angela De Palma-Dow, Water Resources Invasive Species Program coordinator, also known as “The Lady of the Lake,” talked about “Why I Love Clear Lake,” describing the amazing fact that the lake is a minimum of 500,000 years old.
The Land Trust’s president, Val Nixon, outlined the founding of the organization and thanked everyone who has been involved over the years, including donors, volunteers, former LCLT board members and employees.
Honored as Supporters of the Year were the late Bob Schoenherr and Lakeport resident Susan Morton.
Congressman Mike Thompson and his wife Jan attended and participated in the evening’s activities, including the silent auction.
Thompson presented a beautiful framed resolution honoring the LCLT for its 30 years of work
“It was a wonderful evening of fellowship and inspiration,” noted Nixon. “We thank all of our sponsors and supporters who attended; know that the Land Trust is here to stay because of you.”
