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Let the forecasting games begin: International weather organizations collaborate to keep athletes safe and improve forecasts

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Written by: U.S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research
Published: 18 July 2024
As athletes worldwide prepare for the Paris 2024 Olympics, the best of the best in weather research are also gearing up for a friendly competition.

Several international weather research and forecasting organizations will collaborate to provide high-resolution forecast information for Olympics organizers as well as test the capabilities of experimental air quality and weather forecasting models.

The collective forecasts from the participating nations may guide the organizers’ decisions about when actions should be taken to protect athletes from conditions like extreme heat and/or air pollution.

A substantial number of weather data-collecting instruments will be deployed across Paris during the Olympics and Paralympics for these forecasts.

The extensive data collection also provides researchers with a unique opportunity to test the accuracy of models being developed to predict heat, thunderstorms and air quality in complex urban areas.

Researchers from the U.S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research, or NSF NCAR, will participate in this research demonstration project, which was proposed by Météo-France, France’s national weather service, and approved by the World Meteorological Organization, or WMO.

“All the different agencies will compare notes and learn from one another and maybe it will be a little competitive too,” said Scott Swerdlin, an NSF NCAR program director who is overseeing the organization’s role in the project. “People feel passionate about their models and there are fierce debates about whether different model attributes are superior to others, but in the end this will be a learning experience for everyone.”

Complexities of urban forecasting

Modeling and predicting weather in urban areas is complicated. Buildings interact with the natural environment to create microclimates.

For example, the way the sun hits a building can make it hotter on one side of a building, which in turn affects the flow of winds and air quality. Capturing the effects of all the structures in a heavily populated city is challenging.

To address this, NSF NCAR scientists will use an ensemble modeling approach, which averages multiple forecasts to provide predictions that are statistically more likely to represent the real world. The ensemble is computationally intensive, requiring the use of NSF NCAR’s supercomputer, Derecho. The scientists will utilize the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) for their weather and air quality predictions.

“We’re excited to be contributing to this international collaboration, and we’re definitely pushing ourselves beyond what is required for the model intercomparison exercise,” said NSF NCAR scientist Hailey Shin. “We are really curious about answering our own research questions on the prediction accuracy and uncertainty of our high-resolution coupled weather-air quality models as we test the sensitivity of our models to our algorithms that represent the real effects of urban buildings, air pollutant emissions, etc.”

For the project, each international organization will provide 36-hour weather forecasts modeled at a prescribed resolution of 100 meters so there is a common base for comparison of results. This means that, for every 100 meters, the participating agencies will provide a prediction for temperature, humidity, winds, and pressure.

For air quality forecasts, most of the participating groups will model at 3-kilometer resolution, but NSF NCAR scientists will zoom in to provide more detailed information. They will model primary fine particulate matter (PM2.5), which are tiny particles found in smoke and haze that can wreak havoc on the lungs and respiratory system, and carbon monoxide at 111-meter resolution, which is a very fine scale for running WRF.

“Air quality is an issue for elite athletes, especially since they are breathing the air at a faster rate when they compete. Hot and polluted air can lead to dehydration and there could also be combined effects of heat and humidity,” said NSF NCAR scientist Rajesh Kumar. “Beyond the Olympics, nearly 80 percent of the world's population will be living in urban areas by the 2050s. It is very important for us to have modeling capabilities that work well in these areas so that they can play a part in ensuring urban sustainability.”

Nutrition Facts labels have a complicated legacy – a historian explains the science and politics of translating food into information

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Written by: Xaq Frohlich, Auburn University
Published: 18 July 2024

 

The Nutrition Facts label is designed to meet shifting dietary trends and public health goals. NoDerog/iStock via Getty Images Plus

The Nutrition Facts label, that black and white information box found on nearly every packaged food product in the U.S. since 1994, has recently become an icon for consumer transparency.

From Apple’s “Privacy Nutrition Labels” that disclose how smartphone apps handle user data, to a “Garment Facts” label that standardizes ethical disclosures on clothing, policy advocates across industries invoke “Nutrition Facts” as a model for empowering consumers and enabling socially responsible markets. They argue that intuitive information fixes could solve a wide range of market-driven social ills.

Yet this familiar, everyday product label actually has a complicated legacy.

I study food regulation and diet culture and became interested in the Nutrition Facts label while researching the history of Food and Drug Administration policies on food standards and labeling. In 1990, Congress passed the Nutrition Labeling and Education Act, mandating nutrition labels on all packaged foods to help address growing concerns about rising rates of chronic illnesses linked to unhealthy diets. The FDA introduced its “Nutrition Facts” panel in 1993 as a public health tool that empowered consumers to make healthier choices.

The most obvious purpose of the Nutrition Facts label is for consumers to learn the nutritional properties of a food. In practice, however, this label has done much more than simply inform shoppers. It also encodes a wide range of political and technical compromises about how to translate food into nutrients that meet the diverse needs of the American public.

Where do “% Daily Values” come from?

The daily value, or DV, percentages on the label don’t all come from the same source. This is a reflection of differing public health targets for the label.

Recommended values for micronutrients like vitamins are based on Recommended Dietary Allowances, or RDAs, from the National Academies of Sciences Engineering and Medicine. Vitamin RDAs were developed out of historical concerns with undernourishment and meeting minimum needs.

Daily value percentages for macronutrients – carbs, fats and proteins – are based on U.S. Department of Agriculture Dietary Guidelines. DVs for macronutrients registered a new concern about overeating and a focus on “negative nutrition” encouraging maximum intake levels.

DVs reflect two fundamentally different causes for concern. The numbers for micronutrients represent a floor: the basic minimum vitamin needs a child should meet to avoid malnutrition. The numbers for macronutrients, on the other hand, are a ceiling: a target maximum limit that adults should avoid surpassing if they want to prevent future health problems caused by eating too much high sodium or fatty food.

Annotated Nutrition Facts label, highlighing serving information, calories, nutrients and percent daily value
Each component of the Nutrition Facts label is based on data and decisions from various sources. Food and Drug Administration

Why 2,000 calories?

The FDA almost used 2,350 calories as the baseline for calculating daily values, because it was the recommended population-adjusted average caloric need for Americans ages four and older. But after pushback from health groups concerned the higher baseline would encourage overconsumption, the FDA settled on 2,000 calories.

FDA officials felt this figure was less likely to be “misconstrued as an individualized goal since a round number has less implied specificity.” This means 2,000 calories is not actually a target for most American consumers reading the label. Instead, it is an example of the public health preoccupation with collective risk – what one scientist called “treating sick populations not sick individuals.”

By choosing a round number that was easy to do math with, and a calorie count below the average American’s, FDA officials were favoring practicality and utility over accuracy and objectivity. Advocating for the lower 2,000 calorie baseline, they reasoned, would offset Americans’ tendency to overeat and do more good than harm for the population overall.

Who determines serving sizes?

According to the Nutrition Labeling and Education Act of 1990, serving sizes should reflect “an amount customarily used.”

In practice, this involves routine negotiations between the FDA, U.S. Department of Agriculture – which also sets serving sizes for dietary guidance tools like the MyPlate – and food manufacturers. Each conducts research on consumer expectations and food consumption data, taking into consideration how a food is prepared and “typically eaten.”

Serving sizes are also determined by product packaging. For example, a soda can is generally considered a single-serving container and therefore just one serving, regardless of how many fluid ounces it contains.

Comparison of the 1973, 1993 and 2016 versions of the Nutrition Facts label, each with slightly different design and information
Changing public health goals have shaped the Nutrition Facts label over time. In the 1970s, the FDA framed itself as a neutral information broker. The ‘war against heart disease’ in the 1980s placed an emphasis on saturated fat and cholesterol. And the 2010s saw increased focus on added sugars, ‘good fats’ and total calories. Xaq Frohlich

What’s in a name?

The label was almost called “Nutrition Values” or “Nutrition Guide” to highlight that Daily Values were recommendations. Then FDA Deputy Commissioner Mike Taylor proposed “Nutrition Facts” to sound more legally neutral and scientifically objective.

The new design – a staid, black Helvetica text against a white background, using indented subgroups and hairlines for readability – and the authoritative boldface title helped establish “Nutrition Facts” as an easily recognized government brand.

This led to imitators in other policy arenas: first “Drug Facts” for over-the-counter medicines, then consumer protection initiatives in various tech industries, such as Federal Communications Commission “Broadband Facts” and “AI Nutrition Facts.”

The Nutrition Facts panel has remained largely consistent since the 1990s, despite some updates like adding lines for trans fats in 2002 and for added sugars in 2016 to reflect evolving public health priorities.

New ways to calculate the facts

Establishing the Nutrition Facts label required building an entirely new technical infrastructure for nutrition information. Translating the diverse American diet into a consistent set of standardized nutrients necessitated new measures, testing procedures and standard references.

Triangle divided into nine smaller triangles, each labeled with an icon of food based on its nutrient content -- 100% fat at the apex, 100% carbohydrates on the left-most point, 100% protein at the right-most point
The AOAC organized food based on fat, protein and carbohydrate content. National Institute of Standards and Technology

A key player in developing that technical infrastructure was the Association of Official Analytical Chemists. In the early 1990s, an AOAC Task Force developed a food triangle matrix dividing foods into categories based on their proportions of carbs, fats and protein. The intention was to determine appropriate ways to measure nutritional properties like the amount of calories or sugars, as the food’s physical properties would affect how well each test worked.

Legacy of the Nutrition Facts label

Today, public-private collaborations have taken this translation of foods into simplified nutrient profiles further by making nutrition facts plug-and-play. The USDA FoodData Central provides a comprehensive database of nutrient profiles for individual ingredients that manufacturers use to calculate Nutrition Facts for new packaged foods. This database also powers many diet and nutrition apps.

The analytic tools developed for the Nutrition Facts label helped create the basic information infrastructure for today’s digital diet platforms. But critics argue these databases reinforce an overly reductionist view of food as simply the sum of its nutrients, ignoring how the different forms a food takes – such as its moisture, fibrous materials or porous structures – affect the way the body metabolizes nutrients.

Indeed, many nutrition researchers concerned about the negative health effects of ultra-processed foods now talk of a food matrix to emphasize precisely the opposite of what the AOAC sought with its food triangle: a need for a holistic understanding of how food shapes health.

Surprisingly, the Nutrition Facts label’s greatest impact may have been driving the food industry to reformulate products to achieve appealing nutrient profiles – even if consumers weren’t closely reading the labels. While envisioned as an education tool, I believe the Nutrition Facts label in practice has worked more like a market infrastructure, reshaping the food supply to meet shifting dietary trends and public health goals long before consumers find those foods at the supermarket.The Conversation

Xaq Frohlich, Associate Professor of History of Technology, Auburn University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Clearlake woman charged with murder for July 10 shooting

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Written by: Elizabeth Larson
Published: 17 July 2024
Dominique Irene Molina-Dominguez. Lake County Jail photo.

LAKE COUNTY, Calif. — Authorities have charged a Clearlake woman with first-degree murder for fatally shooting a man for whom she had been lying in wait.

Dominique Irene Molina-Dominguez, 32, was taken into custody on Wednesday, July 10, not long after police responded to the shooting, which she reported. She is being held on $1 million bail.

She is charged with killing 38-year-old DeAndre Grinner, who authorities believe may have lived with her at the 16th Street home where he was shot in Clearlake. However, law enforcement has not made clear if the two were in a dating relationship.

Chief Deputy District Attorney Rich Watson, who is handling the case, said Molina-Dominguez has so far made two court appearances but has not entered a plea in the case.

The complaint document shows that Molina-Dominguez is charged with first-degree murder and three special allegations for Grinner’s shooting.

The first, and most significant, of the special allegations is that she is believed to have been lying in wait for Grinner.

Under California Penal Code Section 190.2(a)(15), lying in wait for a victim is one of 22 special circumstances that qualify a defendant for the death penalty.

However, Watson stated on the record Tuesday during Molina-Dominguez’s latest court appearance that the District Attorney’s Office does not intend to seek the death penalty in this case.

The other special allegations are the personal and intentional use of a firearm, in this case a rifle, and special aggravating circumstances that include a crime that involved great violence and involved a weapon.

So far, authorities have not disclosed a possible motive for Grinner’s murder.

In the wake of his murder, friends and family remembered Grinner on social media as a “beautiful soul” who was generous and kind, and a good friend who will be loved forever.

What the investigation has concluded so far

Watson said that at 1 p.m. July 10, a call was placed to police about a person shot at a residence.

Central Dispatch sent Lake County Fire to a home in the 3100 block of 16th Street at 1:15 p.m. July 10, according to radio traffic.

Firefighters staged while waiting for law enforcement to clear the scene and determine it was safe to enter. Some units were released and others asked to enter while one person was reported detained. The fire chief reported over the air at 1:39 p.m. that the person in the home who had been shot was deceased.

When Clearlake Police officers arrived at the scene, Molina-Dominguez was standing in front of the residence, Watson said.

When police took Molina-Dominguez into the yard to speak with her, they asked if she had called in the shooting. Wilson said she told them yes, she had.

Wilson said she also told police, in response to their questions, that she had shot Grinner.

“That was the initial statement,” he said.

Molina-Dominguez did not have the weapon with her when she met police outside, Watson said.

There was, however, a gun located within the home. “It’s still being determined if that was the gun used in the shooting,” Watson said.

When the officers went into the house, Watson said they found Grinner’s body. He had died from what appeared to be one gunshot.

However, Watson noted that a final determination on the cause of Grinner’s death, and how many times he was shot, has not yet been reached.

Court records show that Molina-Dominguez’s record includes a September 2022 drug conviction and a June 2023 conviction for a traffic infraction.

Grinner also had a case filed against him earlier this month in Lake County Superior Court for burglary and receiving stolen property. He had previous cases filed against him in Sonoma County, including one in 2009 for carjacking and kidnapping.

Case progress and court appearances

Based on the investigation so far, Watson — who visited the scene and discussed the investigation’s findings with detectives there — filed the murder case against Molina-Dominguez on July 12.

That was also the day she made her first appearance in court for arraignment, according to court records. She returned to court on Tuesday for the appearance of her public defense attorney and entry of plea.

However, on Tuesday the defense requested a continuance without entering a plea, telling the court they are considering filing a demurrer — which is an objection to a factual point based on relevance — about some of the allegations. Watson said the hearing has been continued to Aug. 6.

Molina-Dominguez’s $1 million bail also was set to be reviewed on Tuesday but wasn’t, Watson said.

Watson said investigators are still working to determine whether there were additional witnesses, although based on the initial scene review it doesn’t appear there were.

“It’s believed that those two were the only two home,” he said of Molina-Dominguez and Grinner.

Also still under investigation is if there was a previous history of a romantic relationship and domestic violence between Molina-Dominguez and Grinner, Watson said.

Email Elizabeth Larson at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. Follow her on Twitter, @ERLarson, or Lake County News, @LakeCoNews.

Victims of fatal crashes identified

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Written by: Elizabeth Larson
Published: 17 July 2024
LAKE COUNTY, Calif. — Authorities have identified the individuals killed in separate crashes last week.

The Lake County Sheriff’s Office said the two crash victims were Roy Hunter, 47, of Cobb and Ivan Rodriguez Vega, 18, of Lawton, Michigan.

Hunter died on the afternoon of July 10 when his 2006 Toyota Scion went off Bottle Rock Road, north of Spring Hill Road.

The California Highway Patrol’s initial report found that Hunter was traveling at a high rate of speed and lost control of the Toyota, which went off the road, traveled down an embankment and overturned before hitting a tree.

Hunter, who was not wearing his seat belt, was ejected from the vehicle and declared dead at the scene, the CHP said.

The following night, July 11, Rodriguez Vega was driving a 2015 Polaris RZR off-road vehicle on private property in the Lower Lake area when the vehicle overturned.

Rodriguez Vega died at the scene and four juveniles riding with him were injured, according to the CHP report.

The CHP said Rodriguez Vega was not wearing a seat belt or a helmet.

Neither crash is believed to have had alcohol or drugs as factors, the CHP said.

Email Elizabeth Larson at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. Follow her on Twitter, @ERLarson, or Lake County News, @LakeCoNews.
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