LAKE COUNTY, Calif. — State water officials this week gave an update on climate conditions and offered an explanation of what weather Californians can expect this fall and winter.
The California Department of Water Resources said it is preparing for a potential fourth dry year based on the weather forecasts so far.
State Climatologist Michael Anderson and Drought Manager Jeanine Jones spoke to reporters about the water year recap for 2022 and what is ahead in water year 2023.
A water year is the period from Oct. 1 to Sept. 30.
Anderson said there has been more variability for this past water year, with both extreme wet and dry months. Water storage statewide is slightly better than water year 2021 but still below average.
That new normal requires a more conservative planning approach and aggressive multiagency action, starting right now, he said.
He said water year 2022 was wetter than 2021 and had the third warmest November on record.
Anderson said December was “fantastic,” with a large amount of precipitation. That included record snowfall in parts of the Sierras, with a statewide average of 150%. Had those conditions continued, the situation would be better overall.
He said water year 2013 had the driest start to a water year until water year 2021. There was a little bit of precipitation during the snow melt, which he said is important to move the snowpack down and into the reservoirs. Then there was the massive heat wave during Labor Day weekend.
Water year saw a large amount of rain in October, when the largest storm occurred — at the start of the season, not in the heart of winter — followed by record dryness. During the peak of the rainy season, from December to February, there was only 50% of the annual precipitation, Anderson reported.
When dry conditions continue, they impact the landscape. Anderson said November was dry and warm and, as a result, the landscape didn’t go into hibernation. Rather than going to sleep, the landscape was evaporating water to stay cool.
During the summer, a southwest monsoon that usually impacts the Colorado River basin occurred with more intensity than normal, resulting in flooding rains for Death Valley, he said.
At the beginning of September, there was a record setting heat wave with records for high temperatures in a number of locations. Hurricane Kay impacted Southern California, with the storm’s northeast side impacting the desert region.
In Northern California, Anderson said there was a typhoon remnant that came down from the Bering Sea where it did damage. Traveling down California’s coast, it brought heavy rains.
Anderson also reported on an expansion of aerial snow surveys the state is carrying out, with the help of the NASA Jet Propulsion Lab, explaining the importance of getting a spatial picture of what is going on.
The expanded surveys moved into the Tahoe and Feather basins last year, and now there are plans to expand them to the watersheds that flow into the Shasta, Kern and American rivers. Anderson said the state wants to better understand snowpack patterns as they are changing and becoming more dynamic.
Conditions challenge water supply
Jones, who wished everyone a “happy new water year,” followed up by saying of water year 2022, “This was our third dry year in a row.”
As a result, the prospects are not good for the Central Valley Project, the series of dams, reservoirs, canals and other facilities managed by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation that supplies water to major urban centers in the Greater Sacramento and San Francisco Bay areas.
For the second year in a row, Jones said the Central Valley Project is offering zero supply to most agricultural contracts except for the Friant Division, which impounds the entire flow of the San Joaquin River. Eighteen percent is going to Sacramento Valley water rights settlement contractors and wildlife refuges, and the health and safety allocation.
The State Water Project, California’s water and delivery system, is only giving a 5% allocation, with 50% to the Feather River water rights settlement contractors, she said.
Jones said increased drought impacts in the Sacramento Valley have led to the California Rice Commission estimating that there has been a 50% cut in harvested rice acreage, which will affect migratory waterfowl that travel the Pacific Flyway, resting and feeding in rice fields.
Water year 2022 had 76% average rainfall. As a result, the state is now consciously holding over more water from its reservoirs. As of September, California’s reservoir storage was at 69% of the historical average. That compares with 124% in 2019 and 120% in 2017, the two most recent wet years, and 36% in 1977, one of the worst years for drought in the state’s recorded history.
During a drought, groundwater is a major supply. Jones said groundwater normally provides 40% of supply, but that rises to 60% during droughts.
Regarding the Colorado River basin, Jones said Lake Mead and Lake Powell have continued to set record low elevations.
To address low water levels throughout the state, Jones said the Department of Water Resources has taken a number of actions, including constructing an emergency selenity barrier in the Bay Delta.
Jones said the Legislature gave significant funding to DWR to respond to drought impacts, and she showed a picture of a portable storage tank in Glenn County for a household whose private well went dry.
Record-breaking stretch of dry years
Anderson explained during the briefing that water years 2020, 2021 and 2022 now make up the driest three year stretch that goes back to water year 1896, with 46 inches of rain. Previously, water years 2013, 2014 and 2015, with 49 inches, had been the driest.
He said this is the third year where there is the presence of La Niña conditions, which occur when water near the equator is cooler than normal.
Going back to 1950, when the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration first put together its La Niña index, there have been only a few other times with stretches of La Niña conditions, specifically, 1976 and 2001, Anderson said.
When the winter solstice arrives, the Earth starts to tilt another way, which Anderson said “opens the door for something interesting to happen.”
Last year, it resulted in weather going from very wet to dry, with Anderson urging readiness for anything that might come the state’s way.
Anderson said the 2021 water year was the second-driest year on record, second to water year 1924.
With groundwater, above average years are needed to have some volume that can be put toward recovery and not just what’s being used on an annual basis, he said.
Anderson said one wet year can do a lot for the surface water supply, but multiple wet years are needed to help with subsurface supply.
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State officials give update on water conditions, winter ahead
- Elizabeth Larson