LAKE COUNTY, Calif. — California could be facing dry conditions this winter thanks to predictions for another La Niña year.
Long-range forecasts from the National Weather Services and AccuWeather show that this is expected to be the third California winter in a row impacted by the La Niña climate phenomena — or, as AccuWeather called it, a “triple dip La Niña.”
A La Niña occurs when water near the equator is cooler than normal. That, in turn, impacts the jet stream — described by the National Weather Service as a narrow band of strong wind in the upper levels of the atmosphere — and so affects overall weather patterns.
That’s in contrast to El Niño, when conditions in the eastern Pacific are unusually warm.
That triple dip La Niña is similar to what California experienced last year, Carl Erikson, senior meteorologist for AccuWeather, told Lake County News in a Monday interview.
In its winter forecast, released last week, AccuWeather noted, “The triple-dip La Niña expected this winter is just the second of its kind in recent history, joining the winter of 2000-2001 as the only winters where the climate phenomenon persisted for so long.”
However, this year’s La Niña may not last the entire winter. “We do expect the La Niña to continue through at least the first half of the winter,” Erikson said, noting there are indications it may begin to weaken in winter’s second half.
What that means for California is that forecasters expect a mild start to the winter, with above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation, which could exacerbate the current drought conditions, he said.
It’s also expected to be a winter with a below-normal snowpack, Erickson said.
Erikson said forecasters are expecting a storm track north of California, in the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia.
There may be more storm activity after the start of the new year.
Erickson said that while the general trend will be for storms further north, during the early part of 2023, there may be more of a southerly storm track that will develop in California. That, in turn, could bring rain and melted snow.
That’s also the best chance for rain to get as far south as Southern California, Erikson said.
Likewise, the National Weather Service’s long-range forecast shows that parts of California, including Lake County, could have above average temperatures and below-average rainfall, but the agency warns that such forecasts are rarely accurate due to their length and so can change.
AccuWeather’s winter forecast reported that another factor could be impacting the coming winter weather — the January eruption of an underwater volcano, Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai, located 2,200 miles northeast of Sydney, Australia.
That eruption caused water vapor to increase in the stratosphere; that water vapor acts like a blanket that traps warmer air underneath it.
The AccuWeather forecast noted that the eruption “could indirectly help to fortify the polar vortex over the North Pole, preventing it from dipping down across North America,” adding that it’s not yet known if the eruption will have a “a significant impact on the winter forecast or other seasonal forecasts in the future.”
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Forecasters predict mild and dry winter
- Elizabeth Larson